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Resolution 97-02 RESOLUTION NO. q7-;L A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF WYLIE, TEXAS, ADOPTING LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE CITY OF WYLIE. WHEREAS, Section 395.045 (a), Local Government Code, requires the City of Wylie, Texas to adopt a resolution approving land use assumptions; and WHEREAS, the City Council of the City of Wylie, Texas met all statutory prerequisites for adopting land use assumptions as contained in Sections 395.001, et seq., Local Government Code, including but not limited to, providing proper notice and conducting a public hearing; and WHEREAS, the City Council of the City of Wylie, Texas determined that it should adopt the Land Use Assumptions For Impact Fees 1997-2006 as recommended by the Impact Fee Advisory Committee; and WHEREAS, the City Council ofthe City of Wylie, Texas finds that this Resolution is being adopted within thirty (30) days after the date of the public hearing as required by Section 395.045 (b), Local Government Code. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF WYLIE, TEXAS: SECTION 1: The City Council of the City of Wylie, Texas hereby approves and adopts the Land Use Assumptions For Impact Fees 1997-2006 as recommended by the Impact Fee Advisory Committee, which is more particularly descnbed in Exhibit "A" attached hereto. SECTION 2: This Resolution shall become effective immediately upon its passage. RESOLVED this olJIl day of LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS 1997 -2006 CITY OF WYLIE LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS PURPOSE Chapter 395 (formerly Senate Bill 36) of the Texas Local Govemment Code prescribes the process by which cities in Texas must formulate development impact fees. To assist the City of Wylie in determining the need and timing of capital improvements to serve future development, a reasonable estimation of future growth is required. For the purposes of determining an impact fee structure, growth and development projections were formulated based on assumptions pertaining to the type, location, quantity and time of various future land uses in the community. It is the purpose of this report to document the methodology used for preparing the growth and land use assumptions for the City of Wylie's impact fee service area. These assumptions will become the basis for the preparation of impact fee capital improvement plans for water and wastewater facilities. METHODOLOGY This report contains four major components: 1. Service Area Map - Map showing the proposed service area for water and wastewater impact fees, which is the preponderance of the area within the present City Limits, and a minor part of the City's extraterritorial jurisdictional area 2. Base Data - Information on existing land use and population for Wylie as of December, 1996 3. Land use and growth assumptions for 10 years (to the year 2006) for area delineated by the Service Area Map 4. Ultimate or "holding capacity' projections for the service area which reflects a built-04t condition based on the City's approved Future Land Use Plan N These land use assumptions and future growth projections take into consideration several factors influencing development pattems, including: 1. The character, type, density and quantity of existing development 2. Existing zoning pattems 3. Future land use plans 4. Availability of land for future expansion 5. Physical holding capacity of the City for land uses and population 6. Location and configuration of vacant land Based on the growth assumptions and the capital improvements needed to support growth, it is possible to develop an impact fee structure which allocates improvement costs in a fair manner to developing areas in relationship to their impact on the entire infrastructure system. The following base data and projections have been formulated using reasonable and generally accepted planning principals. SERVICE AREA MAP Plate 1 depicts the seNice area, which includes most of the area within the corporate limits of Wylie and a portion of the City's extraterritorial jurisdiction (ET J) area. All of the data collection and projections are formulated for this seNice area. A capital improvement plan will be prepared separately for water facilities and for wastewater facilities, and the geographic boundaries of the seNice area will be the same for each element in the plan. BASE DATA In any evaluation and projection of future land use patterns, a thorough understanding of existing conditions is essential. Within the context of this study, a documentation of existing land use patterns and population was critical to determine a base line for future growth projections. To obtain accurate land use information on existing conditions, a field sUNey was conducted in February, 1990 by City personnel. This information was updated to the end of 1996 by permit and zone change records. From that sUNey and subsequent update, each parcel in the City was classified according to its use in one of the following land use categories: Category General Description for Use of Land 1. Residential a. Single-Family Detached dwelling located on a lot or tract b. Duplex A two-family dwelling located on a lot or tract c. Mobile Home A manufactured home either in a park or on a separate lot d. Multi-Family A structure housing three or more family units e. Townhome Attached single-family structure 2. Nonresidential a. Retail Business offering goods for sale including offices b. Commercial A seNice oriented business occasionally with outside storage or light fabrication c. Industrial The manufacturing of a product involving possible open storage, noise, odor or smoke emission d. Public I Semi Public Uses which give membership such as churches, schools and lodges e. Park and Open Space Public space devoted to recreation f. Railroad Land used in railroad right-of-way, g. Right-of-Way Land used in public right-of-way h. Vacant I Agriculture Land used for urban purposes, found to be vacant or used for agricultural purposes Each of the above categories were tabulated on a parcel-by-parcel bases and recorded for the service area. Table 1 shows a summary of existing land uses for the service area as of December, 1996. The total area within the service area is 10,126.0 acres. Of this total area, 24.16 percent is developed as represented by the sum of all developed uses in 2,446.7 acres. The graphic presentation for existing land use patterns is shown for the service area and surrounding areas in the City's extraterritorial jurisdiction by the Existing Land Use map in the Appendix. TABLE 1 EXISTING LAND USE -1996 CITY OF WYLIE Land Use Acres Percent Percent Category Used Developed Area Total Area Single Family Detached 910.9 37.2 9.0 Townhome 7.0 .3 .07 Two-Family 5.5 .2 .05 Mobile Home 97.2 4.0 1.0 Multi-Family 14.6 .6 .1 Public and Semi-Public 290.8 11.9 2.9 Park 119.3 4.9 1.2 Retail 31.7 1.3 .3 Office 6.6 .3 .06 Commercial 162.7 6.6 1.6 Light Industry 77.7 3.2 .8 Railroad 155.9 6.4 1.5 Street Right-of-Way 564.1 23.0 5.6 Parking 2.7 .1 .03 Total Developed 2,4467 100.0 24.16 Vacant 7,679.3 75.84 Total Area 10,126 100 A field survey was done in 1990 in which all existing dwelling units in the service area were counted. At that time there were 3,499 dwellings comprised of single-family detached, two-family, mobile home, multi-family and townhouse units. Since that time there have been 959 building permits for single-family dwellings issued. This would now bring the total estimated dwelling units in existence to 4,458. Subtracting the vacant units and using an estimated average household size of 2.9 for low and medium density units and 2.0 for high density units, the existing population is estimated to be 11,698 persons. Household sizes of 2.9 for low and medium density units and 2.0 for high density units are derived from census data for this area. The relationship of land use to population is shown by Table 2, as a ratio of land per 100 persons in the existing population. TABLE 2 EXISTING LAND USE - 1996 CITY OF WYLIE Land Use Category Acres Used Acres /100 (Pop. 11698) Single Family Detached Townhome Two-Family Mobile Home Multi-Family Public and Semi-Public Park Retail Office Commercial Light Industry Railroad Street Right-of-Way Parking 910.9 7.0 5.5 97.2 14.6 290.8 119.3 31.7 6.6 162.7 77.7 155.9 564.1 2.7 7.79 .06 .05 .83 .12 2.49 1.02 .27 .06 1.39 .66 1.33 4.82 .02 Total Developed Vacant 2,446.7 7,679.3 20.91 Total Area 10,126 ULTIMATE PROJECTIONS To ensure that the 10-year growth projections do not exceed the development potential of the service area and to provide a basis for matching the Capital Improvement Program to the ultimate need, it was necessary to determine the development potential for the service area. Land use was projected based upon the uses proposed by the Future Land Use Plan. Acreages now vacant were calculated by individual land use categories shown on the Land Use Plan. These acres were added to similar acres of existing land use to provide a total acreage for each of the land use categories. Areas which cannot be developed due to their flood prone location were recognized but calculated into the acreage of the adjoining use. It was assumed that the ultimate projections would result in a 100% occupancy of land although there can be expected some vacant land, and in relationship to the City's size, this amount would be negligible. Ultimate land use projections were based primarily on the land use and intensity recommendations in the City's Land Use Plan. The following assumptions were used in preparing the ultimate land use projections: 1. Future land uses would be built-out at the same or similar intensity as existing development of the same type. 2. Residential density is currently approximately 4.5 dwelling units per acre, not including streets and alleys. This ratio can be expected to remain fairly constant as the community matures. 3. Future office development would be generally two stories with an average floor area ratio of .3 to .4. 4. Retail would develop at a floor area ratio of .25. Commercial uses would develop at a floor area ratio of .2. 5. Future land uses would consume land and have general boundaries as set forth on the Future Land Use Plan as shown by the Plan in the Appendix. As calculated, there would be general net acreages of 1,308.8 industry, 441.3 commercial with 390.2 acres of retail. For the purposes of this study Railroad use would not change (there is a possibility that it will in the future). Public and semi-public would have schools and parks, making up the preponderance of this category. Rights-of-way would be at the accepted average found in most communities of 25.0% when built out. Approximately 4,397.4 acres would be available for low and medium density and 261.8 acres available for high density residential. ULTIMATE LAND USE PROJECTION The land use projections for total development is shown in Table 3. This allocation of street right-of- way in the amount of 25% of the total area was removed from each land use category. Therefore, values shown in Table 3 are considered to be net developable acres. TABLE 3 LAND USE - FOR ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTIONS WYLIE, TEXAS Category Acres Residential, Low & Med. Density Residential, High Density Public and Semi-Public Retail Commercial Railroad Industry Street Rights-of-Way 4,397.4 261.8 678.2 390.2 441.3 155.9 1,308.8 2,492.4 10,126 Total Developed POPULATION HOLDING CAPACITY PROJECTION The above land use projections estimate approximately 4,397.4 acres of land will be used for low and medium density residential use. The estimated number of residential building sites will range between 4.0 and 5.0 per acre. For purposes of estimating single-family detached population, a factor of 4.5 is used. High density allocation is 261.8 acres and can be expected to develop at a minimum of 15 units per acre. The following summarizes the estimated dwelling unit projections: Low and Medium Density - 4,397.4 acres - 4.5units / acre = 19,788 units High Density - 261.8 acres - 15.0 units / acre = 3,927 units Total Units - 23,715 units Future population will be dependent upon the number of future dwelling units/households and the number of persons per unit/household. The above calculations estimate the total units, or households as used herein. Population per household has been declining and such decline is expected to continue in the future, reaching 2.0 to 2.2. For purposes of estimated population holding capacity for Wylie, a factor of 2.5 is used for low and medium, indicating a larger than average future household size for detached units and a factor of 2.0 for high density. The population estimate using these factors is 57,324 persons for the residential land use projections. TEN-YEAR LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS Having established the existing and projected ultimate conditions in Wylie, a ten-year growth projection for land use and population was formulated. Several population projections were discussed between members of the Impact Fee Advisory Committee. Over a ten-year period, the proposed growth rate selected by the Committee was a graduated growth rate of 3.5% for the first 3 years, 5% for the next 3 years and 7% for the last 4 years. This rate represents a moderate to accelerated growth throughout the decade. Using the rate discussed above, an estimated population of 19,680 persons in the year 2006. The following shows the required land uses (marginal increase) for this growth rate compared to the actual amount in 1996. The marginal increase is that acreage in addition to the existing acreage used in 1996. For the selected growth rate, the increase is 7,982 persons. TABLE 4 REQUIRED FUTURE LAND (ACRES) FOR YEAR 2006 Existing Acres Additional Acres for Population of 7,982 1,035.2 290.8 119.3 38.3 162.7 155.9 77.7 566.8 Residential Public and Semi-Public Parks and Open Space Retail and Office Commercial Railroad Industrial Street / Alley Rights of Way and Parking 706 199 81 26 111 o 53 386 2,446.7 1,562 The marginal increase in population (gain between 1997 and 2006) is shown below for the selected graduated population growth rate. Graduated Growth Rate (3.5%, 5%, 7%) Total Population (year 2006) Net Dwelling Units Increase (1997 - 2006) Marginal Population Increase (1997 - 2006) 19,680 2,328 7,982 The year 2006 population projection of 19,680 persons is estimated to have 2.9 persons per dwelling unit. This value calculates the total number of residential units for the year 2006 to be 6,786 which is 2,328 units greater than the existing calculation of 4,458 units. It is recommended that the City use the selected graduated growth rate (3.5%, 5%, 7%) for the calculation of impact fees within the service area. The Impact Fee Advisory Committee considers this rate to be viable for the City between 1997 and 2006. The growth of 7,982 persons between 1997 and 2006 for the area within the service area can be reasonably expected to occur if growth begins to build for the remainder of the decade. This growth would represent a medium to fast increase in population and land use absorption. "..... APPENDIX SECTION A City of Wylie / Existing Land Use , l I i ! ' ! Jr- )1 !/ 1 )' : I J ='. - . ~ :J ...' ~ ~ ----:-..-..---. \( )/ "V~' ../ -( ~ '. ..~.._: I .,~~ , ~ +~. ~r"~:- ' , ';" , . ., ,... ',,< .: \ . \ ''-y.............. c::J So-\oo..& '.......r - ""'- - r-..-. Il-c. - ~'--.:r - ........t-..~ - !:>t"'t-'__ - ?--- -- -~ - .......,..... -~ = ~ "-- ~ , .-.. ,.. ....; - plate one City of Wyl ie / Future Land Use ,. ..... tin \ 1 ! --------r------------- \ , \ " " " " ............ ...... " ..... . . ='-'~- = ""':o..-.r_ - .......--.- -..-. - ............ -- - ---r-' t..-T~ ~ --_.......,.~) = .....,..... - "--"-' ."...,. .- ; ;; /" ~ -----tI - - plate two